Online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au has re-adjusted its prices on Australia’s budget deficit following better than expected news in the labour market performance.
2017/18 is now the $2.75 favourite to be the time when a surplus is finally delivered, that price coming in from $4.00 overnight. The odds suggest we might only need to wait 12 months longer than that date with the next surplus happening in 2018/19 the $3.00 second favourite.
It won’t happen overnight though – Joe Hockey is only a $251 chance to deliver a budget surplus this time round however a $30.01 - $35 billion debt is the new outright favourite at $3.00 after previously sharing favouritism with the bracket of $35.01 - $40 billion.
Delivering a surplus before the next election is $3.30 for yes or $1.30 for no.
“The MYEFO estimated the deficit to be $40 billion but the labour market performance has given everyone a glimmer of hope and we’ve adjusted our prices accordingly,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Christian Jantzen.
Markets courtesy of sportsbet.com.au: Join Sportsbet.com.au Here.
Will Joe Hockey deliver a surplus on budget night?
$251 Yes
$1.01 No
When will a surplus be delivered?
(prices in brackets from 28/4/15)
$101 2015/16 (steady)
$6.00 2016/17 (steady)
$2.75 2017/18 (in from $4.00)
$3.00 2018/19 (in from $4.00)
$3.50 2019/20 or later, or never (out from $2.50)
To be a surplus before next election
$1.30 No
$3.30 Yes
Size of Deficit
$19 $20 billion or less (in from $21)
$8.00 $20.01 - $25 billion (in from $11)
$4.00 $25.01 - $30 billion (in from $7.50)
$3.00 $30.01 - $35 billion (in from $3.75)
$5.00 $35.01 - $40 billion (out from $3.75)
$7.00 $40.01 – 45 billion (out from $4.00)
$9.00 $45.01 - $50 billion (out from $6.00)
$21 $50.01 - $55 billion (out from $11)
$34 $55.01 – 60 billion (steady)
$41 $60.01 - $65 billion (steady)
$41 $65.01 – 70 billion (steady)
$34 More than $70 billion (out from $26)
